India's GHG Emission Profile- Result of Five Climate Modelling Studies (Sep 2009)

This is a report supported by India’s Ministry of Environment &
Forests which compares 5 different studies that have been carried out to forecast India's GHG emissions.

STUDIES PRESENTED IN THIS REPORT
This report summarizes the initial results of five studies. These studies are:
1. NCAER-CGE: A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model study by India’s National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)
2. TERI-MoEF: A MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) model study by The Energy & Resources Institute (TERI)
3. IRADe-AA: An Activity Analysis model study by the Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe)
4. TERI-Poznan: Another MARKAL model based study by The Energy & Resources Institute presented at the 14th Conference of Parties (COP) on Climate Change at Poznan
5. McKinsey: A detailed sector by sector analysis of GHG emissions by McKinsey and Company

The report forecasts India's GHG emissions for the year 2031-32. The findings are:
1. Estimates of India’s per capita GHG emissions in 2030-31 vary from 2.77 tonnes to 5.00 tonnes of CO2e, with four of the five studies estimating that India’s GHG emission per capita will stay
under 4 tonnes per capita.
2. In absolute terms, estimates of India’s GHG emissions in 2031 vary from 4.0 billion tonnes to 7.3 billion tonnes of CO2e, with four of the five studies estimating that even two decades from
now, India’s total GHG emissions will remain under 6 billion tonnes of CO2e